For our Planning4care needs assessment tool, we have been hard at work analysing what the Census 2011 results tell us about the likely need for local services such as older people social care and support for mental health and learning disability users. This data and analysis is now live on the Planning4care interactive tool, with the first results just sent to Planning4care users in adult services and social care teams.
The first results from Census 2011 were released in July, showing large differences from previous population estimates, and likely impact on local funding and deprivation levels. In addition, there were big increases in the numbers of older people, showing the population aged 65+ increasing from 8,312,800 in 2001 to 9,223,000 in 2011 (an increase of 10.9%, compared with 7.8% increase for all people). Although the government population projections have not yet been updated to reflect the Census 2011 data, it seems safe to assume that these will need to be rebased to the Census data – and so show an even greater (potential) demand for services in the future.
To give Planning4care users an early indication of what the Census data might mean for local service demands, we have created an interim population projection baselined to Census 2011 but with the same expected future trends as the most recent government projections. This projection is used alongside Planning4care scenarios to explore the likely impact of (for example) the impact of successful ‘upstream’ preventative interventions such as re-ablement, future changes to healthy life expectancy, and shifts in the types of care packages used locally. This Planning4care population projection has now gone live on the system, giving users the most robust data with which to plan and commission social care and other adult services.